Almgren debuts at NYC as a favorite over Benson Kipruto
The World Half champion has never raced 26.2, and LetsRun still ranks him near the top of a field with no sub-2:02 runners.
Andreas Almgren of Sweden runs his first ever marathon on Sunday in New York, and he goes in as one of the favorites. Jonathan Gault has the World Half Marathon champion among the top contenders in the men's race, and LetsRun's preview calls him the betting favorite in New York.
Not your typical backstory for a marathon star.
The case for him is simple. Almgren just ran 58:06 for the half marathon. The case against him is the history. LetsRun points out that a 1:45 800m runner has never won a World Marathon Major, and Almgren is exactly that, a world U20 medalist over two laps who used to work part-time as a data scientist.
A 1:45 800m runner has NEVER won a World Marathon Major.
The field is unusually open
There are no sub-2:02 runners on the starting line. LetsRun ranks every sub-2:05 contender in the field from most to least likely to break the tape in Central Park, and Almgren, with no marathon result at all, lands in that conversation anyway. That tells you how flat the top of the field is this year.
The man standing in his way is Benson Kipruto, who is trying to become the first repeat men's champion in New York since 2013. LetsRun frames the whole race as that question, whether a former 800m guy from Sweden can actually win or whether Kipruto goes back to back.
Why people care beyond the result
Gault's broader point is about where marathon running is won. He writes that the rest of the world has eroded Africa's dominance in the men's distance events on the track, but the continent still reigns supreme in the marathon. New York on Sunday is a test of whether that is starting to move too, with a European debutant in the mix on a championship style course.
What it actually means. Almgren is the betting favorite, not the proven one. He has run 58:06 for 13.1 miles and nothing at all over 26.2, and the gap between those two things is exactly what a New York debut tends to expose. Kipruto has already won this race. Treat Sunday as the experiment, not the coronation.
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