Alexandersson wins Tsaigu 50K, still unbeaten on trail

Tove Alexandersson won the Tsaigu 50K in China, the seventh win of an undefeated trail season, according to Travis Loncar. She was fifth overall in the race and finished 6.26% behind men's winner Yang Chunlong.

Travis Loncar

@tbloncar

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She now has a season average margin of victory of 12.7% over 2nd woman

That overall placing is not a one off. Loncar notes she has gone second, third, fourth and fifth overall in her last four races, meaning she keeps landing inside the top five of the whole field, not just the women's race.

The number that matters

Loncar puts her average margin of victory this season at 12.7% over the second woman. Over the same stretch she has averaged only 8.2% behind the first man. Sit with that for a second. She is beating the rest of the women's field by a bigger margin than the men's winners are beating her.

That is the part worth paying attention to, more than the tally of wins. Seven wins in a season is a very good year. A season where the closest woman is, on average, further behind you than you are behind the men's champion is a different kind of year.

What it actually means

These are Loncar's season averages, not an official ranking, and the percentages come from a mix of races rather than one head to head. Course profile, field depth and race distance all move a number like this, and a 50K in China is not the same test as a long mountain ultra. So treat 12.7% and 8.2% as a snapshot of how her season has gone, not a fixed measure of where she sits against the men.

Still, the snapshot is the story. Alexandersson has not lost a trail race this season, and the margins keep pointing the same direction. The next time she lines up, the interesting question is not whether she wins the women's race. It is how high up the overall results she lands.