Kerr wins Ultimate 1500m after broadcast projected 13th
World Athletics' new win probability graphics had Kerr behind a field he then beat, and reporters had already been calling them out all week.
World Athletics' new win probability graphics projected Josh Kerr to finish 13th in a 12-man field at the World Ultimate Championship 1500m. He won it in 3:29.35.
Chris Chavez posted the screenshot of the projection with nothing but laughing. CITIUS MAG called it defying the odds. Kerr, asked about it afterwards on LetsRun's YouTube channel, said 13 is one of his lucky numbers.
The graphics were already under fire
Jonathan Gault had been going at the projections since the meet started, first noting they were off to a strong start and then calling for them to be scrapped when an unbeaten favourite was given less than a four in ten chance of winning. LetsRun.com joined in, asking if someone could please stop with the inaccurate graphics. The Kerr screenshot is the clearest example yet, a number that was not just wrong but impossible.
The race itself
Kerr closed with a 26.02 final 200m to hold off Diamond League champion Cam Myers, who ran 3:29.68. Three Americans finished within three hundredths of each other behind them, Hobbs Kessler third in 3:30.73, Cole Hocker fourth in 3:30.74 and Yared Nuguse fifth in 3:30.76. Gault called it maybe the fastest close ever in a sub-3:30 race, a 52.57 last lap, and LetsRun put Kerr's final 800m at 1:47.79. Full results and the 13th place graphic are in the CITIUS MAG post.
Nuguse nearly lost a shoe making his move with 600m to go and still ran 3:30.76. "I really ran the race the way I wanted to. I think if my shoe had stayed on, who knows," he told CITIUS MAG. It follows a bump from Phanuel Koech that disrupted his surge in Brussels.
What it means
Kerr's outdoor 1500m and mile season was three races, the 3:42.66 mile world record in London on July 18, the Commonwealth Games mile title on August 1, and this on September 13. That is the argument he has been making for racing less, and he is three for three. The full race report is here.
Sorry, these win probability graphics need to be scrapped if this is the garbage they're churning out.
13's one of my lucky numbers, so that's fine with me.
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